Modi's next battle plan: BJP may topple govts in Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand

As part of its psychological warfare strategy, the BJP is making it very clear that the Bihar, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand governments — already surviving on wafer-thin majorities — may be toppled after the election results are out.

But the riders are — and this is the operative part of the whole strategy — the party will be able to make the effort only if it comes to power at the Centre and does well in the Lok Sabha elections in these three states. BJP leaders, however, said on condition of anonymity that the fears of the state governments were baseless as there was no such plan.

In 2009, the BJP failed to get any of the five LS seats in Uttarakhand, won 12 of the 15 seats it contested in Bihar and eight of the 12 seats it contested in Jharkhand. This time, the party is expecting to sweep Uttarakhand, retain the number in Jharkhand and win 20 of the 40 seats in Bihar.

The Nitish Kumar government in Bihar is in power with the support of the Congress and some non-RJD MLAs, although the Congress has gone with Lalu Prasad’s RJD in the Lok Sabha elections.

JD-U leaders are jittery at the prospect of the Lok Sabha elections having a bearing on the stability of the Nitish Kumar government. While polling for 28 seats has been completed in the state, the remaining will go to the polls in the next two phases on May 7 and 12.

With poll surveys indicating a BJP-versus-RJD fight in Bihar, Nitish’s own men are questioning his decision to part ways with the saffron party. Kumar — with 117 JD-U MLAs — had won the trust vote with the help of four Congress MLAs, four Independents and a CPI legislator. In the 243-member assembly, the ruling alliance needs the support of at least 122 MLAs.

Since then, Kumar has expelled five of his MLAs for ‘anti-party activities’ that took the alliance’s number below the majority figure. “The outcome of the national elections will have an impact on the state government,” Kumar admitted in a TV interview last week.

The assembly polls in Bihar are due in September-October next year but JD-U leaders fear that the BJP may prompt some “fence sitters”, who fear erosion in their social bases with the rise of Narendra Modi, to pull the plug on the Nitish government.

The Uttarakhand Congress is already trying to pre-empt the BJP move. “The BJP is saying our government will fall. But we’ll complete the term,” Uttarakhand Congress chief and minister Yashpal Arya said in Almora on Tuesday in the presence of party vice-president Rahul Gandhi and chief minister Harish Rawat.

In the 70-member Uttarakhand assembly, the Congress has 32 MLAs — four short of the majority figure — and survives on the support of seven legislators of the Progressive Democratic Front, comprising the BSP, the UKD and Independents. The buzz is that the PDF MLAs can switch over to the BJP.

In Jharkhand, the Hemant Soren government of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is surviving by a majority of just one seat. In the 79-member assembly, the ruling coalition has 40 MLAs — including the speaker — while the opposition has 39.

Source: HT

Nitish down, it’s between Modi and rising Lalu in Bihar

When Bihar began voting on April 10, the question did not figure on the minds of pollsters. The first two phases featured constituencies where the BJP was expected to do well and Lalu Prasad Yadav and his RJD were not really factors.

But Lalu’s Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination is believed to have come into play strongly in the third and fourth phases and the RJD is expected to push forward even in the last two phases that are yet to vote.

And so the questions are now being asked: Is Lalu blocking a “Modi surge” in Bihar because the BJP has not been able to sustain the so-called “Modi wave” despite a series of Modi rallies? Have old caste and community calculations Bihar is notorious for come into play again?

Hints to those answers may lie in Lalu’s relaxed and upbeat demeanour during these polls, with supporters claiming that they have never seen him in such a positive mood in nine years.

After the electoral drubbing in 2009 and 2010, Lalu had reconciled to the “winning social combination” of Nitish and the BJP against his M-Y combination. But Nitish leaving the NDA changed that.

This election has not only given him the opportunity to consolidate his vote bank but also stress his credentials as the “sole flag-bearer” of secularism. Nitish, on the other hand, has been left to pitch both secularism and development and is seen, in a sense, to have fallen between two stools.

The most liberal poll surveys have not given RJD more than nine seats. But the growing feeling is that Lalu may well surprise himself and others as he did in 2004 when his party won 22 seats against the BJP’s high-pitched “India Shining” campaign. RJD insiders reckon the party stands a very good chance in at least 15 of the 27 seats it is contesting.
Even Lalu is going around saying the media is throwing up more seats for his party now after forecasting only three wins initially. Political parties and analysts see five reasons behind Lalu possibly playing spoilsport for Modi in Bihar.

POLL DURATION TOO LONG TO SUSTAIN MODI FACTOR: With several BJP candidates also facing anti-incumbency, party sources said sustaining the momentum of the “Modi wave” has been hard work. Modi has had to address public meetings in every phase and at times, three to four places in a day. In fact, sources said it was the BJP’s good fortune that the polls began in the party’s “safe zones”. “Had the election started with Seemanchal or Mithilanchal which have a sizeable Muslim population, the Modi wave could have vanished into thin air,” said the leader, adding that Bihar will never grow out of its politics centred around caste and community.

Bihar will ensure my victory come May 16, claims Narendra Modi

Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi on Wednesday exuded confidence that the land of Bihar is going to ensure his win come May the 16th. He also thanked god for his sheer luck of getting saved when a blast took place in his Patna rally in October last year. "On October 27 last year I got the opportunity for a rally in Patna, and I got a lot of love from Bihar and I said that this state won my heart and made me his own. Guards of our democracy died in bloodshed because of bomb blast. Had there were no blessings of Dwarka's Krishna, then I would not have been alive; I am alive just because of him. If God protected me then, then it is this land in Bihar that will make me win on May 16," Modi said at his rally in Samastipur.

He added that he is just a servant of the people. He also told the political pundits of other countries that come what they may say about India, democracy in India is deep rooted. "I want tell the political pundits of those countries whether it is from the West or in the East who have a belief that India is a home of uneducated people and that people here do not understand democracy, I say that democracy has taken deep roots within India; had it not been so then this huge crowd would not have come here to witness this rally under this scorching heat," Modi remarked.

He said even the aid given by Lalu Prasad Yadav will not help the Congress; he even indirectly took a dig on Janata Dal-United (JD-U) saying their help behind the curtains will not help ensure Congress tide the unpopularity.

"Two things have been ensured in this election till now that mother-son duo government is gone. Even Lalu Prasad cannot even help save them. Those who are even assisting them behind the curtains cannot help them like you have their arrows. Their fortunes are now locked in the ballot box. It is sure that a new government will come. But now you have to ensure that a small thing done by you helps forming a new government which is strong. This country needs a enthusiastic person to lead, not someone who is listless, or is remote-controlled by mother-son, or which is lying in the hospital," Modi added.

BJP's prime ministerial candidate dared top Congress leaders to share stage with Lalu Prasad Yadav and not play games behind the curtains.

"This nation has patience to forgive mistakes, but if someone plays tricks then this country never forgives. In Bihar, the mother and son have a relationship with Lalu, they are helping each other. They even got him out of jail. Then why don't they share the stage with him? Aren't they helping each other? Why don't you have the guts? You play games behind curtains but you can't do it openly?. We must pay them back in equal measure those who have done fraud," Modi said.

7 seats in Bihar register 53.81% polling till 5pm

Bihar registered 53.81% voter turnout on Wednesday till 5pm, an hour before close.

Polling is underway in seven Lok Sabha constituencies in the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in the state.

In round four, all three major political formations led by the BJP, RJD and the ruling JD(U) face a crucial test .

The spotlight is on the Muslim-Yadav combination of RJD president Lalu Prasad, extremely backward castes -mahadalit combination of chief minister Nitish Kumar and the Narendra Modi factor in north Bihar.

The seats where polling is underway are Madhubani (51%), Jhanjharpur (52%), Madhepura (57%), Darbhanga (53%), Samastipur (SC) (52%), Begusarai (57%) and Khagaria (54%). Most of them fall in the flood-affected Kosi-Kamla belt.

Prominent candidates in the fray are JD(U)'s Sharad Yadav, RJD's Rajesh Ranjan (alias Pappu Yadav), former Union minister and BJP leader Hukumdeo Narayan Yadav, cricketer-turned-BJP leader Kirti Azad, and former Union minister and RJD leader MAA Fatimi, among others.

In Madhepura, JD(U) president and seven-time MP Sharad Yadav is facing a stiff challenge from  RJD's Pappu Yadav and BJP's Vijay Singh Kushwaha.

Yadav has won four terms from Madhepura, the home district of BP Mandal, who was the architect of the Mandal Commission report ensuring reservation for backward castes.

He has also won twice from Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh and once from Badaun seat in Uttar Pradesh.

The fourth phase will decide the fate of 94 candidates, including five women. Around 11.2 million voters are eligible to exercise their franchise at 10,521 polling stations.

Altogether 59,000 security personnel including 145 companies of central forces, will be deployed for ensuring smooth elections.

Along with the Lok Sabha elections, a by-poll will be held in Sahebpur Kamal assembly seat in Begusarai district.

The re-poll was necessary after the resignation of former minister Parveen Amanullah from the Nitish Kumar cabinet just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

She has contested the Patna Sahib seat as an AAP candidate.

Twenty of the 40 seats in Bihar have already gone to polls. After the seven in round four, elections in the remaining 13 constituencies will be held over the last two phases on May 7 and 12.

BJP plans Narendra Modi's trip in Bihar for a final push to ensure favorable result

NEW DELHI: BJP plans to unleash its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in Bihar for a final push to ensure a never-before performance in the state that sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha.

Starting on Wednesday when he will address rallies in Chapra and Seohar, Modi will be present in Bihar each day till May 9, either physically or virtually. He will personally campaign in the state for at least two more days besides addressing voters in Bihar through 150 3-D sabhas during the 10-day period. The last two phases of elections in the state is on May 7 and May 12.

Asenior BJP leader said the final run-up was necessary to avoid complacency among the party workers. "It is time to pull out all the stops in the last two phases that account for 14 Lok Sabha seats. The report from the ground was that the cadres on the ground - both BJP and RSS - were getting somewhat disheartened with Lalu Yadav's bluster," the leader said.

The focus, much like in UP, is on micromanagement right down to booth level. Joint teams of Sangh and BJP prabharis have been on the ground, travelling to each and every booth, holding meetings with workers, motivating them to reach out to each voter once again .

The party leader quoted above told ET that report from the April 24 round of polls was not very encouraging. Seven seats of Seemanchal had gone to polls on the day and BJP was on a weak wicket in at least five of the seats including Kishanganj, Sapaul and Bhagalpur, which have sizable Muslim population.

"The elections in the first two phases on April 10 and 17 were spot on, much as we had expected. Of the 20 seats that have already gone to polls, we are confident of getting around 12-13," the person said.

Dharmendra Pradhan, BJP's state incharge and key strategist, is confident of the party getting 25 seats along with its ally Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar. "We have to further build on the Modi wave in the last few days of the campaign. Modi lehar ko badhana hai," he told ET over the phone from Bihar, where he has been camping for almost four months now.

Pradhan has been supervising BJP's poll campaign in the politically complex state where caste and backwardness defined affiliations as much as religion. The planning involved detailed caste engineering with BJP reaching out to the vast community of backward voters in a bid to create a grand social alliance. In the process, however, the upper caste and Brahmins felt neglected.

A party leader said, "It is true that there are 24% forward caste voters in the state, but then the BJP could not ignore the others. We have given tickets to three Brahmin candidates."

Rituraj Sinha, a business major from Leeds University who manages BJP control room in Patna, gave details of what went into managing elections in a state where the party had no base in almost 25 seats. BJP, which was in alliance with the ruling JD (U), had not contested in those constituencies.

Rituraj said the two-pronged plan involved reaching out to each voter at least three times in a door-to-door campaign. The legwork was bolstered by technology as 215 raths (basically GPS-fitted vans) travelled across the state, taking Modi's pre-recorded audio-video message to the voters' doorstep.

"BJP's vote share in the state was 14.5% in 2009. Our aim is to take it to 30%," he said.

Source: ET

Bihar still votes on identity lines

Source: India Today

The electoral battle becomes even more complex when caste lines intersect with the politics of religion

Madhepura/Jhanjharpur: There is a saying in Madhepura: “Rome Pope ka, Madhepura gope ka (Rome belongs to the Pope, Madhepura belongs to the Yadavs).” Since 1967, Madhepura has proved this adage correct by reposing its faith in politics of social identity, voting for Yadav candidates in election after election.

The trend seems set to be extended this time. But not in favour of the incumbent, Sharad Yadav of the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U). Instead, the odds favour Pappu Yadav of the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Implicit in this fight is the narrative of the ongoing election in Bihar, defined, unlike in other parts of the country, almost entirely on the basis of social identity.

While the lead actors in the political narrative have been redefined, the faultlines remain unaltered—albeit redefined after a realignment of castes.

Eight months ago, the script read differently with the alliance of the ruling JD(U) with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still intact—it ended up forging a formidable caste combination of upper castes, backward classes and the bottom of the caste pyramid, the Mahadalits. It provided the political backbone upon which Bihar’s two-term chief minister Nitish Kumar scripted his now famous development story.

The political divorce between the JD(U) and the BJP virtually rebooted the state’s politics, coincidentally at a time when anti-incumbency had begun to creep up on Kumar’s nine-year regime. The caste alliance forged by the BJP and JD(U) collapsed, giving Lalu Prasad elbow room to script a return from political wilderness.

Simultaneously, the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate forced a religious polarization, with Muslims initially lining up behind JD(U), RJD and Congress. In a report published on 5 August (bit.ly/1tZ8Pcd), immediately after the split, Mint had captured this political realignment.

However in the last few months, the stock of JD(U) has dropped sharply and consequently the winnability of its candidates, forcing a further consolidation of Muslim votes behind the RJD combine—the party stitched a political alliance with the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party. Politically, this has, by reviving the famous MY (Muslim-Yadav) alliance, made Lalu Prasad more than just a challenger.

At the same time, though, the so-called Modi wave seems to be triggering a similar consolidation among the majority Hindu community. Predictably, it is leading to a close contest between the two main political forces, in which the eventual outcome may be decided by the turnout. A higher turnout normally favours the BJP as it dilutes the minority vote,which typically goes against it.

Lallan Kumar Yadav, a 34-year-old small trader and panchayat volunteer in Birnhiya Mattahi village, said he voted for JD(U)’s developmental work in 2010 assembly elections but now he is going back to his “original” party.

“We cannot imagine our JD(U) saansad (Member of Parliament or MP) ever coming to our village, sitting with us and hearing our problems. We are the lower caste, and it is only Lalu who is concerned about us,” he said, adding that the “bureaucratic takeover” of Kumar’s government was also a factor.

Voters in the constituency claim that Sharad Yadav, a seven-time MP, is facing one of the toughest electoral battles in Madhepura against a rival from the same caste who has served a jail term after being convicted in a murder case.

Breaking from tradition in a state deeply entrenched in caste politics would be far removed from reality. Surendra Yadav, a voter in what is called “Yadav Tola (hamlet)” in the nearby village of Balam, said: “I will vote for Lalu. The Yadavs will never vote for anyone else.”

Ask him why his electoral choice is based on caste assumptions and he says: “Log mar jaate hain, lekin jaati nahi jaati (people die but their caste does not)”.

In Jhanjharpur, nearly 54km away from Madhepura, another voter, Anil Kumar Jha, a practising advocate from the town, says he would vote for the BJP candidate in his constituency and with clinical precision gives his own predictions about which caste is voting for which party.

“Yahan sab predictable hota hai, caste sab predict kar deta hai (Everything is predictable here, caste predicts everything),” he said.

The caste rhetoric is out in the open in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, primarily owing to the split in the BJP-JDU alliance, said Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst and director of the New Delhi-based Centre for Study of Developing Societies.

“When the BJP and the JDU were together, the upper castes and the backward castes were clubbed together, complementing each other in a way. Even if there were minor differences, they were brushed under the carpet. However, there are three polarizations now—the RJD, the BJP and the JDU— because of which caste support and vocal caste rivalries are very visible this time,” he said.

Religion and caste

Sanjay Kumar added that while people from almost all the castes in the state criticized Nitish Kumar for breaking the 17-year alliance with the BJP, the most severe criticism came from the upper-caste Brahmins, which in turn led to the backward castes rallying for the chief minister.

“In this election, caste and caste-based rivalries would be very strong. It would have been much more strong if Nitish was doing well, which I don’t think his party is,” he added.

However, with the wave being in the favour of the BJP, the party is getting support from non-traditional quarters, too, like the Dalits.

“We have tried and failed with everyone. The JDU and the RJD specially; this time we want to give Narendra Modi a chance, all of us in our community here would support the BJP,” Phool Devi, a 32-year-old mother of four from Jhanjharpur town, said.

The electoral battle becomes even more complex when caste lines intersect with the politics of religion.

JDU was hopeful that its split with the BJP over the issue of Modi’s secular credentials would help the party consolidate the Muslim votes. In retrospect it seems to be a strategy that has gone hopelessly awry. Nitish Kumar’s loss seems to be Lalu Prasad’s gain, especially since JDU candidates are no longer seen as winners.

Even more so after Akhtarul Iman, JDU’s candidate from Kishanganj, withdrew his nomination just before the polls, sending a strong message to Muslim voters ahead of polling in the last three phases beginning on 30 April that the RJD combine holds the best prospects.

According to the latest data made available in Census 2001, 16.5% of the population in Bihar is Muslim, compared with the national average of 13.4%.

“If Muslim votes consolidate in the favour of RJD, the Yadav votes would naturally get more strengthened as opposed to some division which may have been earlier. The perception of RJD looking winnable is helping this consolidation,” Sanjay Kumar said.

Source: Mint

Will Nitish Kumar lose Bihar to Narendra Modi over a bottle of alcohol?

On the outskirts of Dharbhanga city, a group of poverty stricken women from extremely backward caste Musahars were trying to attract attention of chief minister Nitish Kumar, who had arrived to address a public meeting. But in vain.

Pushed by police and shouted down by local Janata Dal (U) activists, they helplessly saw Kumar's helicopters ascending and vanishing in the skies, before throwing dust on their hopes. The wailing women, who disbursed were to complain Kumar about the incidences of violence against them by their drunken male members of their family, who are spending hard earned money on alcohol, thanks to the JD (U) government policy to garner revenue for the cash starved coffers by allowing a liquor shop in every panchayat village. Though, the state's excise revenue has increased manifold, the policy has tell-tale effects on the lives of the people.

Significantly, some 40-kms away from the spot, where Kumar was addressing a modest public gathering, BJP candidate for Madhubani Hukum Dev Narayan Yadav is using liquor as an issue to sell his prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi to voters. He mentions total prohibition in Gujarat and promises to enforce a similar prohibition in Bihar once Modi comes to power in Delhi.

"Gujart is prosperous despite prohibition. Can we allow our men to spend money on liquor to fill coffers of Nitish Kumar," he asks the crowd, who are mostly women from Lalmania and Birpur villages. To a thunderous applause, he says Modi has made Gujarat rich without selling liquor. A connection is made. Women, who till now had not even heard name of Modii or Gujarat find a reason to corner their husbands, who beat them after consuming liquor. Yadav, a sitting BJP MP is fighting a tough battle this time against the RJD's Abdul Bari Siddiqui, whose prospects are rated high after tie up with Congress.

Rukmani Devi, who was in the group of women trying to meet Kumar agrees that his government has done many better things for her community and village. But this opening a liquor shop in the heart of village has sent her life in a tailspin. "Every night, he comes drunk and beats me with whatever he finds around. With three children and another one expecting, it is difficult to make both ends meet," she says, reminding they had a happier life before this liquor shop came to their village.

According to government figures the excise revenue has jumped from a paltry Rs329 crore in 2005-06 to Rs2,765 crore in 2012-13. On latest official count Bihar has a huge network of 5,624 licensed liquor shops. But Fatmi says that for every licensed liquor shop there are least two unlicensed ones and it is more irony that fancy populist schemes like distribution of school uniform or cycles among girl students are funded by the revenue flowing in from the growing production and sale of liquor. The share of excise duty in Bihar's own tax revenue has risen to 17.65% in 2012-13 from 10.33% five years before.

In 2005, when Nitish Kumar became chief minister, the government started allotting more liquor shops and began increasing licence fees in a bid to boost revenue. But just three years later reports of crimes against women in rural Bihar started pouring in. According to a study conducted by Institute of Human Development, more than half of rural women were suffering domestic violence due to liquor. Therefore, Nitish Kumar may have brought development to Bihar in terms of improved roads and electricity, but his underestimation of women power and their abhorrence towards liquor may cost him votes amongst fairer sex across the state.

By: Iftikhar Gilani for DNA