NaMo & SuMo: Does Bihar need more?

File photo (VOA)

If the BJP’s Bihar tally (20-24 seats in most all opinion polls) is more predictable than in Uttar Pradesh (range of 40-53) it is partly because of Modi. No, it’s not who you think it is, but Sushil Modi, who served of Nitish Kumar as Deputy Chief Minister when his party was in alliance with the Janata Dal(U).

The BJP’s problem in UP is that it depends on the guiles of an outsider like Amit Shah rather than its local leadership to bring homoe the vote.The BJP in UP is chock-a-bloc with netas and big egos - Murli Manohar Joshi, Kalyan Singh, Lalji Tandon, etc - but with no clear state leader. Party President Rajnath Singh is himself a former UP Chief Minister. This forces the BJP to rely purely on NaMO's star power.

In Bihar, it has an unassailable leader in Sushil Modi. If the BJP comes to power in the state assembly, he will be Chief Minister, no doubt.

A former head of the inter-state panel on goods and services tax (GST), Sushil Modi (SuMo to Narendra Modi’s NaMo, according to an Economic Times coinage), is a no-nonsense political leader. Unlike others who make tall claims about how well their party will do, SuMo does not want to make predictions, and readily agrees that Lalu Prasad is his real enemy in the Lok Sabha polls. He is still saying he will be the single largest combine, but he is not predicting a sweep.

Caste still matter in Bihar polls

Source: Mail Today

Development is alright, but caste arithmetic remains the key factor in determining the success of a candidate in Bihar.

Most of the seven constituencies going to polls the second phase of Lok Sabha election in the state on Thursday are the impregnable castles of different castes where it might be difficult for the candidates, not belonging to the dominant communities, to script their success stories. It is no surprise that most of the parties have chosen their candidates in keeping with the overall caste profile of the constituencies.

The Patliputra seat, which was created on the basis of the delimitation commission report in 2009, has emerged as a stronghold of Yadav candidates due to large population of their fellow caste men there. This time, the triangular contest has three Yadavs - Misa Bharti (RJD), Ram Kripal Yadav (BJP) and Ranjan Prasad Yadav (JD( U))-in the fray. Patliputra had also witnessed an all-Yadav fight five years ago when Ranjan had defeated Lalu Prasad (RJD) and Vijay Singh Yadav Congress). The adjoining Patna Sahib, however, is considered a safe seat for the candidates from the Kayastha caste. The BJP has retained its sitting MP Shatrughan Sinha while the JD(U) has fielded another Kayastha, Dr Gopal Prasad Sinha. In 2009, Shatrughan had defeated Congress candidate Shekhar Suman, another Kayastha, among other candidates.

Nalanda constituency, the home turf of chief minister Nitish Kumar, has been a bastion of the Kurmis. This time, the JD( U) has retained its sitting MP Kaushalendra Kumar, a Kurmi, while the Congress- RJD has fielded former DGP of Bihar Police Ashish Ranjan Sinha, another Kurmi.

Also going to polls on April 17 are the two seats where candidates from Bhumihar castes have held sway over the years. In Munger, JD(U)'s sitting MP Rajiv Ranjan Singh, a Bhumihar, is locked in a tough fight against LJP's Veena Devi, wife of former MP Surajbhan Singh, a Bahubali (strongman).

Similarly, the two Bhumihars locking horns in Jehanabad are Arun Kumar from the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, an ally of the BJP, and the JD(U)' s Anil Kumar Sharma, a realty baron who owns the Amrapali group of companies.

In contrast, the fight is between the two Rajput candidates in Ara.

The BJP has fielded former Union home secretary Raj Kumar Singh who is trying to wrest the seat from JD(U)'s Meena Singh. In Buxar, the Rajput and Brahmin voters are equally dominant. The BJP has fielded Ashwini Kumar Choubey in its bid to wrest the seat from RJD's Jagdanand Singh, a Rajput, who won the seat defeating BJP's Lalmuni Choubey by a narrow margin.

Some parties have, however, preferred to give ticket to the leaders from other castes. For instance, Lalu Prasad has chosen to field Bhagan Singh Kushwaha, an OBC, from the Rajput- dominated Ara seat while he has given ticket to Surendra Prasad Yadav from the Bhumihar- dominated Jehanabad constituency. Similarly, the Congress fielded Bhojpuri actor Kunal Singh, a Yadav by caste, from Patna Sahib. These parties want to reap the benefits from the split in the votes due to presence of two or more candidates from same community.

Source: Mail Today

Lalu’s charisma on test on two key Bihar seats

Lalu, Rabri at Misa's marriage (Source Rediff)

For decades, he had ruled people’s hearts with his earthy quotes, canny quick-wittedness and the “gift of the gab” as the poor and the underprivileged classes considered him one of their own. This time, however, colourful Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad faces his biggest-ever challenge - of having to prove his hold over voters while out of the political arena for the first time in 37 years after being disqualified from contesting elections in view of his conviction and subsequent sentencing in the multimillion-dollar fodder scam case.

The two Lok Sabha seats where Mr Prasad’s prestige is at stake are Saran and Patliputra, in the eastern state of Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to New Delhi.

While Saran (previously known as Chapra) was his home constituency since 1977 when he became one of the youngest parliamentarians elected to LS at the age of 29, he also tried his luck from a second constituency, Patliputra, which came up after delimitation, during the last LS polls. He won Saran but lost Patliputra to his one-time colleague Ranjan Prasad Yadav.

Now, he is in dire need of victory at both places because it is his wife and daughter who are contesting. Wins in the two seats will give his career a boost, while a defeat will mean vindication of critics who have targeted him for nepotism.

In Saran, Mr Prasad’s wife Rabri Devi is locked in a straight contest with former minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy of the Bharatiya Janata Party although Salim Pervez of Janata Dal-United is trying hard to turn this into a triangular battle by upsetting the traditional Yadav-Muslim vote bank of Mr Prasad. The former Union Railway minister has made an emotional appeal to members of his caste to support him at this critical juncture.

Mr Prasad represented this constituency four times in the past.

Muslims voters look even more polarised this time with Narendra Modi leading the charge of the BJP, coupled with the party’s move to rake up the old, contentious issues of construction of Ram temple at Ayodhya.

Seven Bihar constituencies go to poll tomorrow

	SITTING MP	RJD+	BJP+	JD(U)+
MUNGER	Lalan Singh	Pragati Mehta	Veena Devi	Rajiv Ranjan Singh @Lalan Singh
NALANDA	Kaushalendra Kumar	Ashish Ranjan Sinha	Dr. Satyanand Sharma	Kaushalendra Kumar
PATNA SAHIB	Shatrughan Sinha	Raj Kumar Rajan	Shatrughan Sinha	Gopal Pd Sinha
PATLIPUTRA	Ranjan Pd Yadav	Misa Bharti	Ram Kripal Yadav	Ranjan Pd Yadav
ARRAH	Meena Singh	Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha	R.K. Singh	Meena Singh
BUXAR	Jagada Nand Singh	Jagdanand Singh	Ashwani Kumar Choubey	Shyam Lal Kushwaha
JAHANABAD	Jagdish Sharma	Surendra Pd Yadav	Dr. Arun Kumar	Anil Kr Sharma

Patna: Seven Lok Sabha constituencies go to the poll in Bihar tomorrow in the second of the six-phase election, for which security has been stepped up as many of the seats fall in the Maoist belt.

An electorate of 11,85,07,86 is expected to exercise franchise in 11,846 polling stations to decide the fate of 117 candidates in Patna Sahib, Patliputra, Nalanda, Jehanabad, Munger, Ara and Buxar Lok Sabha constituencies.

Prominent among the candidates are actor-politician Shatrughan Sinha, former Home Secretary R K Singh, Lalu Prasad's eldest daughter Misa Bharti and her two uncles Ramkripal Yadav and Ranjan Yadav.

 A high-pitch campaign addressed by star BJP candidates has preceded the upcoming polls. The party's man of the moment and prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addressed rallies at Jehanabad, Ara and Bikram in Patliputra seats on April 10.

Likewise, BJP veteran L K Advani made his maiden poll campaign in Bihar by addressing rallies at Banka and Katihar on April 14.

Cinestar Shatrughan Sinha, seeking re-election from Patna Sahib, also addressed a large number of rallies, with his Congress rival and Bhojpuri actor Kunal Singh working hard to throw a good challenge.

Chief Secretary A K Sinha told reporters that a total of 42,600 security personnel will be deployed for smooth conduct of the polls.

 As in the first phase of polls, two helicopters would be put in service for tomorrow's election.

Accompanied by Director General of Police Abhyanand, Sinha said 152 companies of central forces and 74 Bihar Military police would be on duty on April 17 polling.

As per Election Commission decision, voting in seven Maoist-hit Assembly constituencies would end at 4 pm while in the rest it would be conducted till 6 pm.

The seven Assembly constituencies that would witness truncated voting time are in Naxal-affected Munger, Lakhisarai, Jehanabad and rural Patna comprising areas in Patliputra parliamentary constituency.